Who Gets Hutch - Followup - 1
So a lot has happened in 2 weeks since Hutch Sale party began... the original tale was one of two suitors - the Cash Rich, Regulatorily restrained Vodafone vs the Cash Constrained but regulatorily Empowered RComm.
The other originally interested players(Maxis , Oracomm etc) have found that the stakes are too big and risks are too high, so dropped out.
We still have the possibility of a real Goliath like Verizon, Deutche Telecom and like getting into the game at late stage. But leaving that aside, there is a new party interested namely Essar. Essar is doing what it is best at - messing up the whole party like a typical inebriated hothead, trying to break a few glasses.
Trust me, never ever underestimate the ability of Essars to spoil the party. Essars themselves dont have a bone of chance getting the 3rd biggest mobile phone operator of India. Essars are the same industrial house who have the dubious distinction of being one of the First Big Indian corporates to default on Foreign Currency Loans (in 1999 i think).
But 33% stake in Hutch India (got thru slew of unplanned, yet totally lucky godsent consolidation deals), is what puts Essar in commanding position - a bit like what the Left parties with just 50 MPs are doing to the UPA Govt... they know that they can drag the Hutch Promoters at Hong Kong to Courts and drag it for years... so....
Essar will do what it is best at - play the spoiler.
Essar however will see reason and cow down and be reasonable, if they are given a really fantastic compensation . That means, valuing Hutch India in excess of 20 billion dollars... say 24 billion dollars would mean 8 Billion $ for Essars that would be good enough for em to give up and leave the party. Such a deal would mean a ready cash inflow of 30000 crore plus Rs, which should fire the group into any kind of unreasonable projects, w.o getting hurt.
The question is - Will it make any business sense for any buyer to pay such high amounts (in excess of 20 billion dollars) to what is after all just the third biggest mobile phone operator ?
The Answer is - No for all buyers. May be for "one buyer" alone.
But Business sense alone never made business decisions.... Everyone knows that.
The other originally interested players(Maxis , Oracomm etc) have found that the stakes are too big and risks are too high, so dropped out.
We still have the possibility of a real Goliath like Verizon, Deutche Telecom and like getting into the game at late stage. But leaving that aside, there is a new party interested namely Essar. Essar is doing what it is best at - messing up the whole party like a typical inebriated hothead, trying to break a few glasses.
Trust me, never ever underestimate the ability of Essars to spoil the party. Essars themselves dont have a bone of chance getting the 3rd biggest mobile phone operator of India. Essars are the same industrial house who have the dubious distinction of being one of the First Big Indian corporates to default on Foreign Currency Loans (in 1999 i think).
But 33% stake in Hutch India (got thru slew of unplanned, yet totally lucky godsent consolidation deals), is what puts Essar in commanding position - a bit like what the Left parties with just 50 MPs are doing to the UPA Govt... they know that they can drag the Hutch Promoters at Hong Kong to Courts and drag it for years... so....
Essar will do what it is best at - play the spoiler.
Essar however will see reason and cow down and be reasonable, if they are given a really fantastic compensation . That means, valuing Hutch India in excess of 20 billion dollars... say 24 billion dollars would mean 8 Billion $ for Essars that would be good enough for em to give up and leave the party. Such a deal would mean a ready cash inflow of 30000 crore plus Rs, which should fire the group into any kind of unreasonable projects, w.o getting hurt.
The question is - Will it make any business sense for any buyer to pay such high amounts (in excess of 20 billion dollars) to what is after all just the third biggest mobile phone operator ?
The Answer is - No for all buyers. May be for "one buyer" alone.
But Business sense alone never made business decisions.... Everyone knows that.
posted by ramki830 at 9:03 AM
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